Wednesday, June 23, 2010

The Grizzlies Workouts (The Final Opinions)

Here is one final post about the players I have seen before the 2010 NBA Draft.  This is for the world to see and be able to reference forever.  I might regret this.  In fact, there is really no possible way that I will not regret this...

Let the record show that this year the guys that I saw workout for the Grizzlies were candidates for the 12th pick, the 25th pick, and the 28th pick.

I went back through previous NBA Drafts (starting in 2000) to find guys that were taken 12 or below that became All-Stars.  Here is what I found.  I am just using guys that have been drafted in the first round.
12 Guys drafted in the first round 12 or below since 2000 have been in at least 1 All-Star game

6- Seniors (Maglore,West, Howard, Nelson, Granger, Lee)
2- Juniors (Jefferson, Martin)
1- Sophomore (Rondo)
1- International (Parker)
1- Freshman (Randolph)
1- High Schooler (G. Wallace)

It is interesting to me that Seniors have by far the best trend of this group. I understand that there can be players that you would consider better than some of these that have not made all-star teams, but I drew the line at one appearance in the game.
I know what comes up next... what about the guys that were drafted in the second round that became all-stars?  I counted 5.
2 Juniors (Redd, Boozer)
1 Sophomore (Arenas)
2 International (Ginobili, Okur)

This makes me feel much better about my affection for Damion James.  I will ride with him and you can call me out on it forever.  I am more confident in James than I am in the other guys that I have seen at the workouts.  If you made me choose from the players that I saw, I'd take James.  I don't give a crap about "it is too high" to take a guy.  He is the guy I like the most (again, of the ones I have seen in person) and I couldn't care less about where some mock(ery) draft has him slotted.

What I found during the research was that if you get a really good, long-term rotation guy 12 or below in the draft- you have done well.  People don't always see it this way, but it is the truth.  The majority of guys drafted 12 and below never play a significant role on a team that does anything meaningful.

Here are the guys that I would bank on -  These are the guys you are allowed to call me out on forever.  I'm riding with...
Damion James
Patrick Patterson
Quincy Pondexter

Everybody is always looking for the guy that everybody passed on that turns out to be a fantastic player.  I did not get to see Eric Bledsoe (decline), Elliot Williams (decline), Avery Bradley (hurt)-  so if they end up being great, don't blame me.  Here are the guys (again, that I saw) that if they wind up being much better than projected, I might be a little surprised, but certainly not stunned.  Potential steals...
Lance Stephenson
Jordan Crawford
Devin Ebanks
Greivis Vasquez

Guys I do not think will live up to what people think they will be- going under assumption that people think they are gonna be better than a role guy (here is what I could regret)
Xavier Henry
Paul George
Luke Babbitt

My favorite guy I saw that will be drafted in the second round (or go undrafted)
Jerome Randle